Olivier Hubert – Head of the Metals Department at ING Switzerland
Between growing needs, geopolitical tensions and the challenge of European strategic autonomy.
Soaring Demand for Metals Shaping the Future
The energy transition, the rise of artificial intelligence and the defence sector will require massive quantities of metals such as copper, aluminium, nickel, cobalt, manganese, lithium, steel, specialty alloys and rare earths. By 2030, demand for some of these metals could triple, and even quadruple by 2040.
However, underinvestment in mining and processing capacity, combined with extremely long lead times (it takes an average of 20 years to bring a new copper mine into operation), is putting increasing strain on the balance between supply and demand. The most significant supply deficits are expected for copper, cobalt, lithium and nickel, not to mention rare earths. As early as 2025, shortages of copper and silver have become evident, driving prices higher. Overall, according to the International Energy Agency, investments of USD 500–600 billion will be needed by 2040 to meet these requirements¹.
Chinese Dominance and Rising Risks
China has invested for decades in metal extraction and refining, not only domestically but also in Latin America and Africa, becoming the world’s leading producer and exporter. It alone accounts for around 50% of global production of copper, zinc and tin; more than 70% of nickel production (including assets in Indonesia), cobalt and lithium; and over 90% of manganese, graphite and rare earth production².
European and US industries are therefore highly dependent on Beijing for their supply of critical metals, potentially jeopardising their economies, the energy transition, the development of new technologies and even the defence sector. The concentration of resources in specific regions and increasing geopolitical polarisation make supply chains vulnerable, prompting the EU and the United States to strengthen their resource security strategies.
Europe’s Response: Strengthening Autonomy and Resilience
In response, Europe adopted the Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA) in 2024, aiming to boost domestic production, resilience and sustainability across the sector. The targets for 2030 are clear: at least 10% of the EU’s annual consumption must come from internal extraction; 40% of metal refining and processing should take place in Europe; 25% of consumed metals must originate from recycling; and dependence on any single non-EU country must not exceed 65%.
However, Europe has limited mineral resources, and opening new mines on a densely populated continent remains complex, notably due to environmental and social (ESG) considerations. The focus must therefore be placed on developing mines outside the EU, while investing in metal processing and recycling capacity within Europe.
Protectionism and Market Challenges
Import barriers such as the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), along with import quotas, tariffs or minimum import prices, could in some cases support the development or repositioning of the metallurgical industry in Europe. Carbon pricing, combined with CBAM, should encourage European industry to invest in green production, which is essential to achieving Europe’s climate objectives.
However, these new regulations and supply constraints are generating volatility, complexity and uncertainty throughout the supply chain, challenges that traders and industrial players will need to learn to manage.
Securing access to these strategic resources has thus become an absolute priority, requiring massive investment and financing, regulation, innovation, international cooperation and careful consideration of environmental issues in order to build a resilient and sustainable metallurgical industry in Europe.
¹ IEA Critical Minerals Data Explorer (May 2025)
² US Geopolitical Survey