Weather matters in coffee. It shapes production, influences market sentiment and quickly becomes part of the story that traders, roasters and farmers are all watching. For Greg Oddo, Weather Strategist with Sucafina, a multinational coffee merchant based in Geneva, Switzerland, understanding that connection sits at the heart of his role.
Greg works to track conditions across key coffee-producing regions and translates forecasts into insights for Sucafina’s global team of Destination and Origination coffee professionals. Alongside that, he also works as a trader, combining weather analysis with hands-on market experience to help inform trading strategy. We sat down with Greg to learn more about what he does, the challenges he faces and the biggest lesson he has taken from the past year.
What do you do at Sucafina?
Greg Oddo: I’m a weather strategist. My job is to forecast the weather for the global group, looking at the main production areas around the world. Basically, I tell my team what I think is going to happen the next day, week, month and so on, and we use that information to inform our trading strategy.
I’m also a trader myself. I currently work in physical specialty trading for the Group and have traded agricultural commodities futures for several years. I try to take weather data and turn it into a tradable source of information, which allows us to take positions when we believe the weather will have an impact on market prices.
In coffee, weather is never just a background detail. It can influence supply, shift sentiment and change the way the market behaves. My role is about making sense of those signals and turning them into practical insights.
Why is that work so important?
Greg Oddo: The weather affects everything. If you’re looking at coffee production, you need to understand what is happening in the main producing regions and what that could mean in the short term and the longer term. My job is really about helping the team understand those risks and opportunities more clearly.
That matters because weather can have a direct impact on market prices, but it does not always play out in a simple or obvious way. Knowing what is happening is one part of it. Knowing how the market is likely to react is another.
Can you share a specific weather event that shows just how far those ripple effects can reach?
Greg Oddo: The 2023-24 El Nino was something we saw coming. It fundamentally changed the way the coffee industry as a whole operated. Record global heat affected production from Vietnam to Central America to portions of Brazil and even Colombia. But what it really showed is that weather doesn’t just move markets. It changes decisions at every level of the supply chain.
On the sourcing and origination side, it affected how much coffee was available and how farmers chose to sell. Because prices were rallying, many held onto their coffee and waited. They were making more money. That directly impacted arrivals and what coffees our teams were able to buy. We saw shifts from Arabica to Robusta, from Brazil to Colombia. Roasters had no choice but to become much more flexible with their blends.
One major exporter in Brazil went out of business. Millions and millions of bags were lost. Outside of price itself, it put a huge strain on the supply chain at every level, financially, logistically and in terms of the relationships and contracts that hold it together.
That’s why our supply and demand planning is tied to the weather every year. It’s not one event. There are many in any given year. How we pre-buy the crop, what our strategy is, all of that starts with what the weather is telling us.
What are the biggest challenges you face?
Greg Oddo: There are a couple. The first is the inherent difficulty of forecasting the weather itself. At the end of the day, you’re predicting the future.
The second challenge is understanding when weather actually matters to market prices and when it doesn’t. Something might be important at origin, but it may not necessarily be viewed as important by other traders in the marketplace who trade Arabica or Robusta futures.
The third challenge relates to information transparency, especially regarding how the market perceives current weather conditions. This year has been a great example of that. There were people early in 2026 trying to spin a narrative that it was too dry in Brazil or that there were issues there, sometimes using limited data to support that story.
Part of my role is to provide transparent observations and fill information gaps for others who may not have visibility into what’s actually happening in a specific origin. That’s important because one report can move the market. If someone uses incomplete information, it can send the wrong signal to people who don’t have access to other information sources.
So improving transparency and informing the market about what’s really happening is both a challenge and something I’ve taken a more active role in over the past year.
That tension between observation and interpretation sits at the heart of my work. Forecasting is difficult enough on its own. Doing it in a market where perception can move as quickly as fact adds another layer entirely.
Has that changed the way you think about your role?
Greg Oddo: Yes, definitely. I’ve become more focused on the transparency side of the job. It’s not only about what I think will happen next. It’s also about helping people understand what is already happening now.
In a market like coffee, that kind of visibility matters. People make decisions quickly and often with limited information. If the starting point is not accurate, the rest of the conversation can go off track pretty fast.
What has been your biggest learning this year?
Greg Oddo: My biggest learning this past year is that, as an industry, we are still struggling with transparency in data and observations.
There have been competing narratives about what’s happening in very important coffee origins. Forecasts have always differed, that’s normal. Anyone involved in futures or physical trading understands that different people have different views and express those views in the market.
What’s been unusual this year is that the disagreement hasn’t just been about forecasts. It’s been about observations, about what is actually happening right now.
It’s made me realize how important it is to provide transparency when it comes to current observations and events, essentially creating an even playing field for understanding the current situation. We can debate forecasts. But we shouldn’t debate what has already happened.
What keeps this work interesting for you?
Greg Oddo: It sits at the intersection of a lot of things I care about. You have the science side, the forecasting side and then the market side. You’re constantly trying to understand what the data is telling you, what matters most and how people are going to interpret it.